For two post seasons in a row I can’t seem to move the needle off .500 with my predictions. Again, that’s why I never bet on football.
As I consider the games this weekend, before I can think about who’ll win I need to consider who has a chance to beat the Patriots. As the weeks continue to roll on, my hatred for the Patriots mounts to an almost unbearable level. If someone doesn’t knock these fuckers out of the playoffs I’m just going to have to lock myself in a room for 2 or 3 days and cry. Oh how I hate Tom Brady and Bill Belifuck.
Strangely enough, I think all 3 teams remaining that could face them could beat them. The key is their defense. The Giants, Packers, and Chargers all have a physical defense that can put pressure on a quarterback. Let’s face it, no one is going to shut down the Patriots offense but I think any of those teams could hold them to between 20 and 30 points. So then you consider: which offense can score 30+ points?
Scoring 30+ points on the New England defense isn’t actually the problem since their defense isn’t really all that great. It’s above average, but it’s old and it is easily the worse defense of the 4 teams remaining. The problem is most of the teams left have an anemic offense.
We can rule out the Giants right now. There is no way they are going to run up a score on the Patriots. Eli will come back down to earth and this team will struggle. So that’s a big NO for NY.
The Chargers could do it... Especially if they field a healthy team (more on this later). But I’d say if you let them play 5 games and went for the majority most of the time San Diego would probably come up short. I just don’t see them being able to consistently come out there and run up the score if you can take LT out of the equation. I trust Rivers only a tiny bit more than Eli. But luckily they only pay one game, not five. So we’ll give the Chargers a maybe.
Green Bay can easily score 30+ points against New England. Hell, they could score 40+ points on them. This is a definite yes.
If Green Bay’s defense plays like they did in the first half of the year (or the way they did against Seattle last week), this team beasts the Patriots. If the Charger’s defense plays at top level and their offense plays at tippy top level they could beat the Patriots. If Randy Moss gets put in jail and the devil finally comes to collect Tom Brady’s soul, the Giants could possibly beat the Patriots. Ah, who am I kidding, they still couldn’t do it. They’ll implode long before then. Eli Manning sucks big balls.
On to this week’s predictions:
In case you haven’t noticed I’m not real big on New York. I know you’re not supposed to look past a game but I think it’s safe for Green Bay to start considering New England. This won’t even be a game. The Giants offense won’t score more than 10 points against the Packers. I’m thinking something like 52-17 Packers.
The AFC Championship game intrigues me. In the end, the Patriots will probably roll pretty handily over the Chargers. But as I stated above, the Chargers can do it. I know Rivers, Tomlinson, and Gates are all injured, but that isn’t the end of the world. Well, if Gates can play it’s not the end of the world, anyway. He can’t be replaced. But since he played last week I would think he’ll play this week and hopefully be effective this time given one more week to heal. The good news for the Chargers is that they have two of the most capable back ups in the league with Billy Volek and Michael Turner. In fact, Turner is hands down the best back up running back in the league (in my book). And in case you forget remember what Volek did with the Titan’s a few years ago at the end of the season. Those 4,321 touchdowns passes from Volek to Drew Bennet in the span of 3 games still haunts me (they were not on my fantasy team).
This game all comes down to Norv Turner. Will he trust that his TEAM can win a game? By that I mean he needs to field his healthy players and give them a chance to win. If Rivers is too injured, don’t play him just because he’s your #1 QB. Play Volek. Same with LT. If he is not 85% or higher, play Turner. Don’t handicap the rest of your team by playing a lame duck when the back ups are this good. I don’t think New England’s defense is all that, but even 100 year old Junior Seau can run down a guy that’s limping.
So please, Norv, remember it’s a team sport and put the guys on the field that can give your team a chance to win. Don’t look past the talent of your back ups and play your injured starters because you think they are the only guys who can do it. Play your healthy players. That’s why you have a bench. You do that, you can win.
So for shits and giggles, I’m picking the Chargers this week. How about 27-24?
Hell, why ruin a perfect .500 post season?
-David
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2 comments:
I was very disappointed by the results this weekend. I was really rooting for Green Bay and--what the hell--Brett Favre too. I've never been a huge Favre fan, but he outclassed the remaining three QBs, so I wanted to see him win. Then the ridiculousness.
When they needed Favre most, he looked downright stupid. And that jackass special teams guy who didn't fall on the fumble. They teach you that the first day of junior high football and pound it into your head right up through the NFL. That was my experience when I played for the Bills during the strike year. Fall on the fucking ball.
It really turned into the battle of the Corky's--a Greer Merchant expression when that show about the down syndrome guy was at the height of its popularity.
Yes, I was actually stunned by the outcome of the Green Bay game. They had many opportunities to lose that game and managed to capitilize on ALL OF THEM. All they had to do was not fuck up one of those many times and the game would have been theres. Instead, we have a Superbowl that sours my stomach. This brings me to my next enry...
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