Conference Championships, baby!

Now that’s more like it. I went 3-1 last weekend which brings my post season picks to 5-3.

Before we get to the meat of this weekend’s picks, let’s just get the bane of my post season predictions out of the way… what’s up with the Cardinals? Did they really win that game or did Jake Delhomme and the Carolina secondary just flat out lose it in a cataclysmic fashion?

This weekend’s NFC Championship game between the Cardinals and the Eagles is going to come down to one thing: mistakes. I’m not even going to be obvious and say turnovers. I’m going to say any kind of mistake (turnovers, blown coverage, missed protection pick up on the line, etc.). What I mean by that is that apparently Arizona CAN beat a real team if they play a perfect game. But I just don’t think they can afford to make a single mistake. One mistake and they are probably done. Philadelphia, on the other hand, can probably afford to make a few mistakes and still win because, let’s face it, they are better than Arizona. This especially holds true when the Cardinals D faces the Philly offense. Philly’s offense has a tendency to sputter (especially in the last couple games) while Arizona’s defense has been playing on FIRE. If those two trends keep up… The Arizona Cardinals in the Superbowl? Could it be?

All that said, I’m taking Philly. I don’t see lightening striking 3 times in a row.

Now, to the important game this weekend: Pittsburgh vs Baltimore. Let’s face it, neither of those NFC teams could beat either of these AFC North powerhouses. So when you watch the AFC Championship this weekend, you are finding out who will be the Superbowl champ.

Both teams are bruising juggernauts on both offense and defense. Thankfully, I think this one boils down to injuries, which favors the Steelers who only have Troy Polamalu and Justin Hartwig with ailments. Now, I need to be careful when I say “only” Polamalu because he is just that big of a difference maker. In addition, while Justin Hartwig is not even close to being the best center in the league, he is the guy who snapped balls to Big Ben all year. So I hope whoever our back up center is (Darnel Stapleton?) he is getting a lot of practice snaps this week. There is nothing worse than a botched snap exchange that leads to a lost fumble. And while Hartwig may be ready to go at the beginning of the game, what if he gets re-injured during the war? Let’s be ready just in case.

On the other hand, the Ravens have a ton of walking wounded. And unlike the Steelers, their injuries are serious enough that guys might not even play. The most notable are Terrell Suggs, Samari Rolle, and Le’Ron McLain. Remember what happened last year to the Steelers when Aaron Smith and Ryan Clark went down and on top of that Troy should have gone down (but he is just too damn tough for that). Our defense essentially fell apart. If both Suggs and Rolle don’t play combined with some of the other guys on D who are banged up… I just don’t see how Baltimore can win this game. The Steelers offense, while anemic most of the year, should be able to take advantage of that. Especially the passing game as Suggs is critical to their pass rush and Rolle is a key to defending the pass.

On offense, McClain is one of the only running backs this year who gave the Steelers D some problems. We ended up containing him pretty well in both games, but he is a big, bruising son of a bitch. If he is out of there and all we have to do is contain Willis McGahee… well let’s just say I think it is going to be a long game or Joe Flacco as we won’t have to respect the run so much. If Ray Rice wasn’t injured a while back I would be concerned about him as well as he is their rookie change of pace back. In fact if all 3 RBs were healthy I would be fairly nervous. But it looks like only McGahee will be healthy enough to make an impact which heavily favors the Steelers. McClain will probably play, but I expect him to re-injure his ankle and spend most of the game on the sidelines.

After the injuries, the next biggest key to this game is the quarterbacks. Everyone knows that these defenses are the two best in the league, so how will these quarterbacks attack? I think this key boils down to which QB throws the better deep balls. The Pittsburgh D had a few uncharacteristic issues with the deep ball last week against the Chargers. I’m sure Baltimore noticed that and will attack that aggressively with Flacco’s big time arm. He can really wail one down the field and Coach Harbaugh seems to have no problem getting those kinds of plays dialed up for him.

On the flip side, Big Ben can also throw a ball out the back of the stadium parking lot. The difference here is probably Ed Reed. He is biggest ball hawk in the league. This whole story line probably boils down to who wins the mental game of Big Ben vs Ed Reed. Can Ed disguise his deep coverage enough to force Ben to throw into an area he is watching? Can Ben get a bead on Reed and make sure to keep the ball away from his range of coverage? To be honest, I don’t know who will win this battle. What I do know is that Bruce Arians can help this situation GREATLY by always giving Ben two options on the deep ball plays. I’d like to see him call plays where if there is a deep route, there are two. For example, send Washington on a deep post down the right sideline and Holmes down the left. Or send one of them and Hines Ward down the same sideline and then about 25 yards out have Hines cut his route back to the middle of the field. This way, you are probably forcing Reed to bite on one of the two routes. If he does, then Ben can just toss the ball to the other route who most likely now has single man coverage.

If Ben can keep the ball away from Ed Reed, the Steelers can and will win this game.

This game will be a battle of the ages. It will be one of those games, like the Immaculate Reception where the Superbowl isn’t the most remembered game of that post season. Thirty years from now, when people think back on Superbowl XLIII, they are going to have a vague memory in the back of their mind that Baltimore and Pittsburgh were playing for the Lombardi trophy. This game will be burned so deeply into their memories that they’ll completely forget it was just the AFC Championship game, not the Superbowl.

I can’t wait.

For the record, I’m picking Pittsburgh.

HERE WE GO STEELERS, HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!

-David

PS: And also for the record, in the Superbowl I’m picking the AFC team, regardless of what happens in either game this weekend.